Performance review the company released 23 annual report and 24 quarterly report on the evening of April 28Greypoker23 realized revenue of 959 for the whole yearGreypoker.800 million yuan, + 19.7% compared with the same period last year; realized a net profit of 6.52 billion yuan, turning a loss into a profit over the same period last year. 1Q24 realized revenue of 20.02 billion yuan, + 13.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.82 billion yuan, + 79.6% year-on-year. In 2023, the planned cash dividend is 0.25 yuan per share, with a dividend ratio of about 51.4%, and the current stock price corresponds to a dividend yield of about 4.0%. Business analysis Zhejiang power supply and demand is still tight, 23 years of coal machine utilization hours compared with the same period last year + 123 hours. In 23, the electricity consumption in Zhejiang Province was + 6.8% compared with the same period last year, and the maximum load increased by 8.2% compared with the same period last year. As the "ballast stone" of the power system, thermal power is responsible for peak supply protection. During the summer of 23, the highest load rate of coal-fired units in Zhejiang Province reached 97.3%, an increase of 0.2 pct over the 22-year historical high; while the company's coal machines accounted for 57.6% of the province's coal power installation scale, the number of hours used in 23 years reached 5533 hours, + 123 hours compared with the same period last year. The third phase of superimposed Ledian was put into production before the peak of the summer, and the annual power generation was 1632.4 billion kWh, + 7.4% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate of 1Q24 revenue is lower than that of electricity, or it may be dragged down by falling electricity prices and reduced sales of photovoltaic products. 1Q24 completed 38.35 billion kilowatt-hours of online electricity, + 18.0% year-on-year, of which thermal power accounted for 99.8%; in the same period, the company achieved revenue of 20.02 billion yuan, + 13.5% year-on-year. Judging from the purchase price of industrial and commercial agents in Zhejiang Province, the average on-grid electricity price of 3M23 is close to the annual average bilateral negotiation transaction price of electric power in that year; the transaction price of 3M24 agent is 480.4 yuan / MWh,-3.5% compared with the same period last year, and the electricity charge of coal power capacity is 13.9 yuan / MWh, which is about 0.7% lower than the same period last year. In addition, 1Q24 Zhonglai share revenue fell 52.4% year-on-year, mainly due to a reduction in the sales scale of photovoltaic manufacturing products. The main business and equity investment bring abundant cash flow and provide conditions for a high proportion of dividends. Benefiting from the downward coal price in the market, the profitability of the company's main business has improved significantly in the past 23 years. The gross profit margin of the power sector has increased by 7.4%, with a sharp increase of 15.8 pct compared with the same period last year. The company has achieved a net operating cash flow of 11.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5022%. In addition, over the past 23 years, the company's participation in Qinshan Nuclear Power and Sanmen Nuclear Power in Zhejiang Province has achieved investment income of 1.47 billion and cash dividend of 1.05 billion; investment income of 2 billion yuan and cash dividend of 1.68 billion yuan have been obtained in thermal power assets controlled by coal power integrated enterprises such as Guoneng Group. Abundant cash flow provides the basis for dividends. In 23 years, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share, with a dividend ratio of about 51.4%. Earnings Forecast, valuation and rating We expect the company to achieve a net profit of $840,000,93.4 and EPS of 0.63, 0.70 and 0.86 respectively in 2024 and 2026, respectively. The current price of the company's shares corresponds to a valuation of 10 times, 9 times and 7 times of PE, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating. Risks indicate the progress of new projects, the downward degree of coal prices, power demand, the progress of power marketization, the lower-than-expected performance of Zhonglai shares and other risks [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of third parties and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
